Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of China’s Digital Economy Development Based on ESDA and GM-GWR Model

Research on the geographical aspects of digital economy is valuable. We base our study 10 consecutive years panel data from 2011–2020 for 31 Chinese provinces. First, we measure Digital Economy Index using entropy weight method and analyze its spatiotemporal heterogeneity characteristics Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method. Next, Grey Model (GM) utilized to conduct time series predictions each unit. Finally, use GM predicted values Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) model explore spatial effects external factors. This finds that: (1) The overall development shows a trend vigorous growth, with significant heterogeneity. gradient difference decreasing eastern coastal areas western inland areas. (2) There an obvious “digital divide” “Matthew effect” in regional development, agglomeration spillover gradually increasing. (3) Considering influencing factors, technological progress has positive impact, technology-oriented obvious, showing pattern high south low north. industrial structure significantly positive, increases year by year, distribution characteristic north general, clear effect reducing “bipolar” distribution. marginal government support foreign investment are reduced there non-stationarity. provides scientific basis further research economy.